Marcílio Dias v Joinville: the model read
Marcílio Dias meet Joinville in the Copa Santa Catarina group stage - 1. The model makes Marcílio Dias the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 43% MAR, 33% draw, 24% JOI.
Marcílio Dias rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1581 to 1431. Recent form leans Marcílio Dias, 63% against 38%. Attacking output favors Marcílio Dias on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 27%, over 2.5 goals around 27%. Draw no bet leans Marcílio Dias at 64%; double chance reads Marcílio Dias or draw 76%, Joinville or draw 57%.
Marcílio Dias arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Portuguesa, D 1-1 v Portuguesa, W 2-1 v Cascavel, D 2-2 @ Cascavel.
Joinville are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ São Luiz, W 2-0 v Guarany de Bagé, D 0-0 v Cianorte, L 0-1 @ Santa Catarina.
Marcílio Dias hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 0 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Marcílio Dias 2-0 Joinville.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
