Al-Gharafa v Al Shamal: the model read
Al-Gharafa meet Al Shamal in the Stars League regular season - 2 at Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Doha.
The baseline ratings are close, 1408 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Al Shamal, 48% against 35%. Attacking output favors Al Shamal on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.
Al-Gharafa arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Al Sadd, L 1-3 v Al Shamal, W 2-1 v Al Shahaniya, D 2-2 @ Al Riyadh.
Al Shamal are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 14 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Al-Rayyan SC, W 3-1 @ Al-Gharafa, D 2-2 @ Al-Arabi SC, L 4-6 v Al Sadd.
Al Shamal hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Al-Gharafa 1-3 Al Shamal.
The market prices AL- at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 2.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
