Where the market is wrong on Vitória de Sernache v CF Os Belenenses
Vitória de Sernache meet CF Os Belenenses in the Liga 3 regular season - 4.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1613, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans CF Os Belenenses, 66% against 55%. Attacking output favors CF Os Belenenses on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.0 per match.
Vitória de Sernache arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v CF Os Belenenses, W 3-0 @ Nazarenos, L 2-3 @ Oliveirense, D 0-0 v SC Covilha.
CF Os Belenenses are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 14 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Vitória de Sernache, W 2-1 @ Lusitano Évora 1911, W 5-0 v União Santarém, W 3-1 @ Louletano.
CF Os Belenenses hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Vitória de Sernache 1-3 CF Os Belenenses.
The market prices VIT at 18% implied. Our number sits apart on Vitória de Sernache: a 11.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
