Where the market is wrong on Varzim v Paredes
Varzim meet Paredes in the Liga 3 regular season - 4.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Paredes, 60% against 45%. Attacking output favors Paredes on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.2 per match.
Varzim arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 12 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Paredes, W 5-1 v Trofense, W 4-1 @ Pacos Ferreira, W 2-1 v AD Marco 09.
Paredes are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Varzim, W 3-1 @ Ermesinde, L 1-2 v Leça, W 1-0 @ Pacos Ferreira.
Paredes hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Varzim 0-1 Paredes.
The market prices VAR at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on Paredes: a 7.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 71 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
