Where the market is wrong on Three Bridges v Carshalton Athletic
Three Bridges meet Carshalton Athletic in the Non League Premier - Isthmian regular season - 6.
The baseline ratings are close, 1547 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 56% against 60%. Attacking output favors Three Bridges on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 75%, over 2.5 goals around 78%. Draw no bet leans Carshalton Athletic at 53%; double chance reads Three Bridges or draw 62%, Carshalton Athletic or draw 67%.
Three Bridges arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 8 scored and 16 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Dulwich Hamlet, L 1-5 v Aveley, L 1-3 @ Chatham Town, L 2-3 @ Eastbourne Borough.
Carshalton Athletic are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 10 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Brentwood Town, W 2-1 @ Stanway Rovers, W 2-1 v Cray Wanderers, W 2-0 v Wingate & Finchley.
Three Bridges hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2014: Three Bridges 4-1 Carshalton Athletic.
The market prices THR at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
