PAOK v Dynamo Kyiv

PAOK meet Dynamo Kyiv in the UEFA Europa League 2nd qualifying round at Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki. The model makes Dynamo Kyiv the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 32% PAO, 28% draw, 40% DYN.

Dynamo Kyiv rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1662 to 1535. Recent form leans Dynamo Kyiv, 72% against 55%. Attacking output favors Dynamo Kyiv on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.9 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 74%, over 2.5 goals around 76%. Draw no bet leans Dynamo Kyiv at 55%; double chance reads PAOK or draw 60%, Dynamo Kyiv or draw 68%.

PAOK arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 16 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Dynamo Kyiv, L 2-3 v Twente, W 3-2 v AEK Larnaca, W 4-0 v KVC Westerlo.

Dynamo Kyiv are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v PAOK, D 0-0 @ Universitatea Cluj, W 4-2 @ Radomiak Radom, D 0-0 v Universitatea Cluj.

PAOK hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Dynamo Kyiv 2-3 PAOK.

The market prices PAO at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on Dynamo Kyiv: a 17.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.