Where the market is wrong on Zira v Paide
Zira meet Paide in the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd qualifying round at Kapital Bank Arena, Sumgayit. The model makes Zira the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% ZIR, 31% draw, 32% PAI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 57%. Attacking output favors Paide on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Zira at 53%; double chance reads Zira or draw 68%, Paide or draw 63%.
Zira arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 10 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Paide, W 3-0 @ Torpedo Kutaisi, W 3-0 v Torpedo Kutaisi, L 2-3 @ Araz.
Paide are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 10 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Zira, L 2-5 @ Laagri, W 3-0 v Hegelmann Litauen, D 1-1 @ Hegelmann Litauen.
Paide hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Paide 1-0 Zira.
The market prices ZIR at 80% implied. Our number sits apart on Paide: a 26.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output