Where the market is wrong on PAOK v Aris Thessalonikis
PAOK meet Aris Thessalonikis in the Super League 1 regular season - 4 at Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Aris Thessalonikis, 68% against 53%. Attacking output favors PAOK on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
PAOK arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Atromitos, L 2-3 @ Brann, W 4-0 v Levadiakos, D 1-1 v Brann.
Aris Thessalonikis are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 12 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v OFI, W 3-2 @ Kalamata, W 2-0 @ Anagennisi Karditsas, L 2-6 @ Napoli.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK.
The market prices PAO at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on Aris Thessalonikis: a 18.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
