Benfica v GIL Vicente: the model read
Benfica meet GIL Vicente in the Taça da Liga quarter-finals. The model makes Benfica the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 46% BEN, 28% draw, 27% GIL.
Benfica rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1500. Recent form leans Benfica, 70% against 50%. Attacking output favors Benfica on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 62%, over 2.5 goals around 70%. Draw no bet leans Benfica at 63%; double chance reads Benfica or draw 73%, GIL Vicente or draw 54%.
Benfica arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 v CF Os Belenenses, L 1-2 @ FC ST. Gallen, W 2-0 v Villarreal, L 1-2 v Flamengo.
GIL Vicente are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Moreirense, W 1-0 v FC Porto, D 1-1 v Felgueiras 1932, L 0-3 @ Sporting CP.
Benfica hold the recent head-to-head, 9 wins to 1 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: GIL Vicente 1-2 Benfica.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
