Where the market is wrong on Quick Boys v Jong AZ
Quick Boys meet Jong AZ in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies. The model makes Quick Boys the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 41% QUI, 28% draw, 32% JON.
The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Quick Boys, 63% against 53%. Attacking output favors Quick Boys on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 79%, over 2.5 goals around 83%. Draw no bet leans Quick Boys at 56%; double chance reads Quick Boys or draw 68%, Jong AZ or draw 59%.
Quick Boys arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Den Bosch, W 2-1 @ Willem II, W 2-1 @ Kozakken Boys, D 2-2 v Ijsselmeervogels.
Jong AZ are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 12 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Sparta Rotterdam II, W 3-0 v Jong Ajax, W 3-1 v FC Volendam, D 1-1 @ Waalwijk.
Quick Boys hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Quick Boys 4-3 Jong AZ.
The market prices QUI at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 6.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 60 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
