Bad Schallerbach defeated WSPG Wels 2-1 in this Club Friendly, a result that the Lemeister model had projected exactly, giving the home side a 37 per cent chance of victory. The data shows a contest that was statistically balanced in many areas, with the decisive factor being Bad Schallerbach's superior conversion of their opportunities. The model's pre-match read of a narrow home win proved accurate, though the underlying numbers suggest WSPG Wels were not outplayed and could easily have taken something from the match.
Possession was shared almost equally, with Bad Schallerbach holding 50 per cent to WSPG Wels's 49 per cent, while one per cent went unaccounted for. This parity extended into the attacking metrics: both sides registered eight total shots, though Bad Schallerbach placed four on target compared to Wels's three, indicating marginally better finishing accuracy. The expected goals figures were remarkably close at 1.2 for the home side and 1.1 for the visitors, reinforcing the narrative that the match was decided by fine margins rather than overwhelming dominance. WSPG Wels were unfortunate that their output did not yield a second goal to force a draw, as the xG difference of 0.1 is statistically negligible.
Passing numbers were similarly tight, with Bad Schallerbach completing 459 passes at an 83 per cent accuracy rate, while WSPG Wels managed 447 passes at 82 per cent. The similarity in these metrics points to a midfield battle that neither side controlled, with both teams finding it difficult to impose their rhythm. Corners were equal at three each, and the physical contest was also balanced: ten fouls committed by each side, with both receiving two yellow cards. No red cards or penalties were recorded, indicating a match that was competitive but disciplined, with no major disciplinary incidents influencing the outcome.
No player ratings or line-ups are available in the supplied data, and no substitute details were provided, meaning individual performances cannot be assessed beyond the broad team statistics. The lack of named involvement from any key players leaves the tactical picture incomplete, but the evenness of the core metrics suggests that the result hinged on moments of quality in the final third rather than systematic superiority. The equal shots and expected goals imply that WSPG Wels were unfortunate to leave empty-handed, particularly given that their xG of 1.1 would usually warrant at least a share of the spoils.
For Bad Schallerbach, the victory provides a positive note ahead of more serious competition, but the statistical parity indicates that their advantage was narrow and arguably outside the margin for error. Their ability to convert chances at a rate slightly above expectation was the decisive factor, with no evidence of a clear tactical or physical edge. WSPG Wels, who were rated as only slight underdogs by the Lemeister model at 34 per cent, will feel they deserved at least a draw given the numbers, and their finishing will be an area for improvement as they prepare for more meaningful fixtures.
In the context of a Club Friendly, the result carries limited weight, but the data paints a picture of a fixture that was decided by fine margins. Bad Schallerbach's narrow victory reinforces the Lemeister model's projection, while WSPG Wels can take encouragement from their performance in a closely fought contest. Both sides will have identified areas for refinement as they continue their pre-season preparations.
