S. Nsimba's 40th-minute strike and A. Al Hamlawi's successful penalty in the 121st minute, the decisive kick of a marathon shootout, gave Universitatea Craiova a 1-1 draw after extra time and a 4-3 victory on penalties in the Supercupa Final. The Lemeister model had projected a 1-0 win for Universitatea Craiova, giving them a 45 per cent chance of victory before kick-off, but the final outcome required a shootout that stretched to sudden death. The underlying numbers from the match, however, tell a story of near-total parity that the model's pre-match read could not capture, with neither side able to build a statistical advantage sufficient to settle the contest in regular play.
The opening 40 minutes were a cagey affair, with both teams struggling to impose themselves. Universitatea Craiova broke the deadlock when S. Nsimba scored, with A. Mekvabishvili providing the assist. The goal gave the favourites a narrow lead to take into half-time, a lead that was not reflected in a clear statistical dominance. While possession and shot totals remained balanced through the first period, the home side's efficiency in the final third was just enough to create the opening. The underlying numbers, however, remained tightly contested throughout, with neither side posting a significant advantage in expected goals or shots on target.
Universitatea Cluj responded quickly after the interval. A. Aliev levelled the scores in the 53rd minute, assisted by I. Macalou, setting up a period of sustained pressure from the underdogs. The yellow cards began to accumulate, with A. Aliev booked for Universitatea Cluj in the 65th minute, followed by C. Mora and A. Mekvabishvili for Universitatea Craiova. D. Nistor and A. Rus were also cautioned, indicating a fractious and high-stakes encounter that failed to produce a winner in normal time. The second half saw no further goals from either side, with both defences holding firm under increasing pressure.
Extra time brought no further goals from open play, leading to a penalty shootout that was a test of nerve more than skill. The first six penalties were all converted, including A. Al Hamlawi's effort for the home side and A. Chipciu's for the visitors. The decisive miss came in the sudden death phase, when Universitatea Cluj failed to convert, allowing A. Cicaldau, C. Mora, A. Mekvabishvili and M. Stefanescu and M. Drammeh to all score before Universitatea Craiova's eventual victory. The shootout demonstrated remarkable composure from both sets of takers, with only one miss across the entire sequence.
The match statistics underscore the tight nature of the contest. With neither side able to create a clear statistical advantage in open play, the result hinged on the precision of the shootout. The home side's ability to convert all but one of their penalties proved decisive, while the visitors' solitary miss in the sudden death phase proved costly. The victory gives Universitatea Craiova the Supercupa title, confirming their status as the league's dominant force and adding silverware to their regular-season success. Universitatea Cluj will rue a performance that matched their opponents for large periods but ultimately fell short in the lottery of penalties, leaving them to reflect on what might have been in a final where the statistical margins were too fine to separate the two sides.
