England won their World Cup quarterfinal 2-1 against Norway at the Hard Rock Stadium, but the scoreline does not fully capture how a match that was level at 1-1 deep into normal time was settled by a pair of second-half goals from Jude Bellingham. The Lemeister model had favoured England, giving them a 41 per cent win probability, and the data suggests the margin was a fair reflection of the balance of play.
The match was goalless until the 36th minute, when Andreas Schjelderup put Norway ahead with a goal assisted by M. Odegaard. Norway had started brightly, but England responded before half-time. In the 45th minute, Jude Bellingham equalised, with A. Gordon providing the assist. The match remained level until the 93rd minute, when Bellingham scored his second of the game, this time without an assist, to put England in front. A fourth goal was registered for England in the 99th minute, though no scorer or assister is recorded in the data, confirming the final margin.
The statistics show a contest that was tight in terms of territory but tilted towards England in the decisive moments. Possession was narrowly in England’s favour at 52 per cent, a small advantage that was reflected in the passing numbers: England completed 568 of 628 passes at a 90 per cent accuracy, while Norway managed 494 from 577 at 86 per cent. Total shots were similar, England with 14 to Norway’s 13, but the quality of chances favoured the visitors. England put 8 of their efforts on target, earning 6 goalkeeper saves from Norway’s Ørjan Nyland, while Norway managed only 4 shots on target, from which the England goalkeeper made 3 saves. Expected goals tell the same story: England generated 1.04 to Norway’s 0.68, indicating that their finishing was more dangerous.
The match ratings highlight the standout performers. Jude Bellingham, despite playing for Norway according to the data, received an 8.5 rating, the highest on the pitch, underlining his influence with two goals. Andreas Schjelderup, who scored Norway’s goal, was rated 8.2, while Djed Spence (7.9), Ørjan Nyland (7.7), Nico O’Reilly (7.3), and Julian Ryerson (7.2) also contributed solid performances for the losing side. The ratings suggest Norway’s key players performed well, but the team could not match England’s efficiency in front of goal.
Defensively, both teams conceded exactly 1.04 goals more than their expected goals against, with the goals-prevented metric showing minus 0.58 for each side, implying that neither goalkeeper overperformed significantly. Norway’s Kristoffer Ajer received a yellow card in the 117th minute, but that was the only card of the match. The sides made six substitutions each, indicating that the extended game demanded deep squad use.
For Norway, this quarterfinal exit ends their World Cup run, a defeat that will sting given they led at halftime and held England to a draw deep into the second half. For England, the victory sets up a semifinal date, with Bellingham’s late double proving the difference in a game that, by the numbers, they just about deserved to win. The Lemeister model’s projection of a 2-1 England victory proved accurate, and the data confirms the result was a fair outcome of a competitive, high-stakes encounter.
Norway 
England