Where the market is wrong on Næsby v Holstebro
Næsby meet Holstebro in the 3. Division regular season - 10 at ALPI Arena Naesby, Odense.
Næsby rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1627 to 1489. Recent form leans Næsby, 65% against 45%. Attacking output favors Næsby on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.8 per match.
Næsby arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v Holstebro, W 2-1 @ Ringsted, D 1-1 v FC Helsingor, L 2-3 v AC Horsens.
Holstebro are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 5 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 @ Næsby, L 1-3 v Ishøj, L 0-2 @ Sundby, W 3-2 v Frem.
Næsby hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Næsby 4-0 Holstebro.
The market prices NÆS at 58% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
