Where the market is wrong on Frem v ASA Aarhus
Frem meet ASA Aarhus in the 3. Division regular season - 4 at Valby Idraetspark, Copenhagen.
The baseline ratings are close, 1528 to 1589, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans ASA Aarhus, 63% against 53%. Attacking output favors ASA Aarhus on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 71%, over 2.5 goals around 72%. Draw no bet leans ASA Aarhus at 55%; double chance reads Frem or draw 61%, ASA Aarhus or draw 68%.
Frem arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Sydkysten, W 3-1 v ASA Aarhus, L 0-1 @ FC Helsingor, D 1-1 v Hørsholm-Usserød.
ASA Aarhus are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Frem, L 0-4 v Randers FC, W 2-1 v Vanløse, W 1-0 @ Ishøj.
Frem hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Frem 3-1 ASA Aarhus.
The market prices FRE at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on ASA Aarhus: a 19.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
