Arsenal Tula v Torpedo Moskva

Arsenal Tula meet Torpedo Moskva in the First League regular season - 4 at Stadion Arsenal, Tula. The model makes Torpedo Moskva the most likely outcome at 53%, with the full read 19% ARS, 28% draw, 53% TOR.

Torpedo Moskva rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1686 to 1400. Recent form leans Torpedo Moskva, 76% against 34%. Attacking output favors Torpedo Moskva on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 32%, over 2.5 goals around 53%. Draw no bet leans Torpedo Moskva at 73%; double chance reads Arsenal Tula or draw 47%, Torpedo Moskva or draw 81%.

Arsenal Tula arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-5 @ FC Sochi, L 0-1 v FK Neftekhimik, W 2-1 v Tekstilshchik, D 1-1 @ CSKA Moscow.

Torpedo Moskva are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 10 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Shinnik Yaroslavl, W 3-1 v Volga Ulyanovsk, W 1-0 @ Ural, W 3-0 @ FC Sochi.

Torpedo Moskva hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 5 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Torpedo Moskva 1-1 Arsenal Tula.

The market prices ARS at 36% implied. Our number sits apart on Torpedo Moskva: a 18.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 86 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.