Where the market is wrong on Sporting CP B v Farense
Sporting CP B meet Farense in the Segunda Liga regular season - 4 at CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira, Alcochete.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Farense, 53% against 35%. Attacking output favors Farense on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Sporting CP B arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Farense, L 0-2 @ Penafiel, W 1-0 v Chaves, W 1-0 @ AVS.
Farense are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Sporting CP B, D 1-1 v Felgueiras 1932, W 3-1 @ FC Porto B, W 2-1 v Torreense.
The market prices SPO at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
