Where the market is wrong on Arminia Bielefeld v FC St. Pauli
Arminia Bielefeld meet FC St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga regular season - 4.
Arminia Bielefeld rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1558 to 1400. Recent form leans Arminia Bielefeld, 57% against 35%. Attacking output favors Arminia Bielefeld on expected goals, 2.6 to 1.4 per match.
Arminia Bielefeld arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ 1. FC Nürnberg, D 2-2 @ SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, W 3-0 v Energie Cottbus, L 1-2 @ Karlsruher SC.
FC St. Pauli are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v 1. FC Kaiserslautern, L 0-2 @ Rot-Weiß Essen, D 2-2 @ Holstein Kiel, D 1-1 v SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
FC St. Pauli hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2023: FC St. Pauli 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
The market prices ARM at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on Arminia Bielefeld: a 10.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
