Where the market is wrong on Trefelin v The New Saints
Trefelin meet The New Saints in the Premier League regular season - 11 at Ynys Park, Cwmafan.
The New Saints rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1730 to 1431. Recent form leans The New Saints, 80% against 38%. Attacking output favors The New Saints on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.9 per match.
Trefelin arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 3 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v The New Saints, D 1-1 @ Briton Ferry, L 0-4 v Cambrian & Clydach, L 0-1 v Penybont.
The New Saints are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 13 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Trefelin, W 2-1 v Llandudno, W 5-0 v Flint Town United, W 2-0 @ Airbus UK.
The New Saints hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Trefelin 1-3 The New Saints.
The market prices TRE at 3% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 15.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
