Where the market is wrong on Cardiff MET v Caernarfon Town
Cardiff MET meet Caernarfon Town in the Premier League regular season - 11 at Cyncoed Campus, Cardiff.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1592, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 60%. Attacking output favors Caernarfon Town on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.9 per match.
Cardiff MET arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Caernarfon Town, L 0-1 @ GAP Connah S Quay FC, D 1-1 @ Flint Town United, D 2-2 v Cambrian & Clydach.
Caernarfon Town are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 20 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Cardiff MET, W 9-1 v Cambrian & Clydach, D 1-1 @ Llandudno, W 5-0 @ Ammanford AFC.
Caernarfon Town hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cardiff MET 2-2 Caernarfon Town.
The market prices CAR at 28% implied. Our number sits apart on Cardiff MET: a 9.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 75 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
