Where the market is wrong on Ammanford AFC v GAP Connah S Quay FC
Ammanford AFC meet GAP Connah S Quay FC in the Premier League regular season - 4 at Ammanford Recreation Ground, Ammanford.
The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Ammanford AFC, 63% against 53%. Attacking output favors Ammanford AFC on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 56%. Draw no bet leans Ammanford AFC at 51%; double chance reads Ammanford AFC or draw 65%, GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw 65%.
Ammanford AFC arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v GAP Connah S Quay FC, L 0-2 @ Airbus UK, D 2-2 v Colwyn Bay, L 1-2 @ Briton Ferry.
GAP Connah S Quay FC are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 14 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Ammanford AFC, W 6-0 v Trefelin, W 3-1 @ Holywell, L 1-2 v Caernarfon Town.
GAP Connah S Quay FC hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ammanford AFC 0-2 GAP Connah S Quay FC.
The market prices AMM at 11% implied. Our number sits apart on Ammanford AFC: a 24.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
