Where the market is wrong on Rouen v Valenciennes
Rouen meet Valenciennes in the Ligue 3 regular season - 5 at Stade Robert Diochon, Rouen.
The baseline ratings are close, 1565 to 1492, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Rouen, 61% against 50%. Attacking output favors Rouen on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.2 per match.
Rouen arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 8 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Valenciennes, W 2-0 @ Villefranche, W 3-0 v Quevilly, W 2-1 @ Orleans.
Valenciennes are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Rouen, D 0-0 v Concarneau, L 1-2 @ Gobelins, W 2-0 v Bourg-en-bresse 01.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Rouen 1-1 Valenciennes.
The market prices ROU at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
