Where the market is wrong on Bourg-en-bresse 01 v Thionville Lusitanos
Bourg-en-bresse 01 meet Thionville Lusitanos in the Ligue 3 regular season - 3 at Stade Marcel-Verchere, Bourg-en-Bresse.
Thionville Lusitanos rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1444. Recent form leans Thionville Lusitanos, 71% against 39%. Attacking output favors Thionville Lusitanos on expected goals, 2.1 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 60%. Draw no bet leans Thionville Lusitanos at 68%; double chance reads Bourg-en-bresse 01 or draw 51%, Thionville Lusitanos or draw 77%.
Bourg-en-bresse 01 arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Thionville Lusitanos, L 0-2 @ Valenciennes, W 3-2 v Villefranche, L 1-2 v Dijon.
Thionville Lusitanos are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 16 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Bourg-en-bresse 01, W 4-3 v Caen, W 3-0 @ Aubagne, D 2-2 v Nancy.
Thionville Lusitanos hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Bourg-en-bresse 01 0-2 Thionville Lusitanos.
The market prices BOU at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on Thionville Lusitanos: a 9.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 77 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
