Where the market is wrong on Orihuela v Castellón II
Orihuela meet Castellón II in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 group 3 - 4.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1492, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 47%. Attacking output favors Castellón II on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.
Orihuela arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 v Castellón II, D 2-2 @ Deportiva Minera, L 1-4 v Real Murcia, W 1-0 v Lorca Deportiva.
Castellón II are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 11 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 @ Orihuela, W 2-1 @ Valencia II, W 3-0 v Alcoyano, L 1-2 v Intercity.
Orihuela hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Orihuela 1-4 Castellón II.
The market prices ORI at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on Castellón II: a 15.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
