Where the market is wrong on Tamworth v Macclesfield
Tamworth meet Macclesfield in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies. The model makes Macclesfield the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 34% TAM, 28% draw, 38% MAC.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 63%. Attacking output favors Tamworth on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 79%, over 2.5 goals around 82%. Draw no bet leans Macclesfield at 53%; double chance reads Tamworth or draw 62%, Macclesfield or draw 66%.
Tamworth arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Halesowen Town, L 1-2 v Aston Villa U21, W 3-1 v Stoke City U21, L 0-5 @ Port Vale.
Macclesfield are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 12 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 5-2 @ Altrincham, W 2-1 v Wolves U21, D 1-1 @ Leek Town, W 3-0 v Hyde United.
The market prices TAM at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on Macclesfield: a 16.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
