Where the market is wrong on West Ham v Derby
West Ham meet Derby in the Championship regular season - 5 at London Stadium, London.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans West Ham, 55% against 45%. Attacking output favors West Ham on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.
West Ham arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 12 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 4-2 v Wolves, D 1-1 @ Watford, W 4-1 @ Southampton, L 1-2 v Charlton.
Derby are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Portsmouth, L 0-3 v Swansea, D 2-2 v Cardiff, L 1-2 @ Charlton.
West Ham hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2023: Derby 0-2 West Ham.
The market prices WES at 70% implied. Our number sits apart on Derby: a 18.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
