Where the market is wrong on Cardiff v Wrexham
Cardiff meet Wrexham in the Championship regular season - 1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff.
Cardiff rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1604 to 1454. Recent form leans Cardiff, 65% against 43%. Attacking output favors Cardiff on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 77%. Draw no bet leans Cardiff at 66%; double chance reads Cardiff or draw 75%, Wrexham or draw 51%.
Cardiff arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 15 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Derby, D 1-1 v Wrexham, W 3-2 v Swindon Town, W 4-1 v AS Roma.
Wrexham are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 2 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Watford, D 1-1 @ Cardiff, L 0-1 @ Middlesbrough, L 0-1 v Sunderland.
Cardiff hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cardiff 1-1 Wrexham.
The market prices CAR at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on Cardiff: a 10.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
