Where the market is wrong on Crusaders FC v Dungannon Swifts
Crusaders FC meet Dungannon Swifts in the Premiership regular season - 7 at Seaview, Belfast.
The baseline ratings are close, 1638 to 1627, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 68% against 65%. Attacking output favors Crusaders FC on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.8 per match.
Crusaders FC arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 10 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Dungannon Swifts, L 1-2 v Limavady United, L 1-4 @ Coleraine FC, W 2-1 @ Glentoran.
Dungannon Swifts are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Crusaders FC, L 0-1 v Linfield, W 2-0 @ Limavady United, W 2-0 @ Cliftonville FC.
The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Crusaders FC 3-0 Dungannon Swifts.
The market prices CRU at 27% implied. Our number sits apart on Crusaders FC: a 10.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 79 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
