TSV Hartberg advanced past Imst in the Cup Round of 64 with a 3-1 win at the VELLY Arena, a result that contradicted the Lemeister model's pre-match assessment. The model had installed Imst as marginal favourites with a 45 per cent win probability, but the final scoreline was decided by a ruthless first-half display and a late insurance goal. Without detailed shot, expected goals or possession data, the match can be analysed only through its goal timings and the broader context of the competition, but those elements tell a clear story of a side that capitalised on its opportunities while its opponent struggled to sustain pressure.
The scoring began in the 12th minute when B. Markus put TSV Hartberg ahead with a normal goal. The pattern was set early: the visitors controlled the opening exchanges and made their pressure count, taking the lead inside the first quarter-hour. That advantage was doubled in the 23rd minute when M. Hoffmann converted from the penalty spot, giving the away side a commanding two-goal lead before the half-hour mark. The quick double struck a significant blow to Imst's hopes, forcing them to chase the game earlier than they would have planned, especially given the Lemeister model's expectation of a tighter contest.
Imst responded late in the first half. A. Demir pulled one back in the 43rd minute with a normal goal, reducing the deficit to 2-1 at the break. The timing was crucial: by scoring just before the interval, the hosts gave themselves a platform from which to mount a second-half comeback, entering the dressing room with renewed belief. However, they could not sustain enough pressure to force an equaliser in the second period. Without statistical data on shots or possession, it is impossible to quantify the balance of play after the restart, but the absence of further goals until stoppage time suggests that TSV Hartberg managed the contest effectively, absorbing Imst's pressure and limiting clear chances.
The decisive moment arrived in stoppage time. J. Drew scored a normal goal in the 91st minute to restore TSV Hartberg's two-goal cushion and seal the win. That late strike removed any hope of an Imst fightback and confirmed the visitors' passage into the next round, with the margin of victory reflecting their clinical edge across the 90 minutes. The timing of the third goal was particularly telling: it came after Imst had committed men forward in search of an equaliser, leaving gaps that TSV Hartberg exploited in transition.
With no player ratings recorded in the data, individual contributions cannot be assessed with numerical precision. However, the three goal-scorers for TSV Hartberg, B. Markus, M. Hoffmann and J. Drew, delivered the decisive moments, while A. Demir was the only home player to find the net. The absence of any cards suggests the match was not particularly fractious, and both sides competed without significant disciplinary issues, focusing on football rather than confrontation.
For Imst, the defeat ends their Cup run at the first hurdle, a disappointment given the Lemeister model's slight favouritism before kick-off. The model projected a 2-1 home win, but TSV Hartberg outperformed that expectation by scoring three times and restricting Imst to a single goal. TSV Hartberg progress to the Round of 32, having navigated a potentially tricky away tie with composure and efficiency. The margin of victory was clear, and the late goal provided a final scoreline that reflected the visitors' overall control of the contest, even if the underlying data does not allow for a more granular breakdown of the patterns of play.
