Where the market is wrong on Cesar Vallejo v Union Comercio
Cesar Vallejo meet Union Comercio in the Segunda División regular season - 11 at Estadio Mansiche, Trujillo. The model makes Union Comercio the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 26% CES, 34% draw, 40% UNI.
Union Comercio rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1558 to 1408. Recent form leans Union Comercio, 57% against 38%. Attacking output favors Union Comercio on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 25%, over 2.5 goals around 21%. Draw no bet leans Union Comercio at 61%; double chance reads Cesar Vallejo or draw 60%, Union Comercio or draw 74%.
Cesar Vallejo arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 3 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Union Comercio, L 2-3 v Carlos A. Mannucci, L 0-2 @ Alianza Atletico, D 0-0 v Alianza Lima.
Union Comercio are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Cesar Vallejo, L 0-2 @ Sporting Cristal, L 0-1 v Comerciantes, W 3-1 @ Estudiantil CNI.
The market prices CES at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Union Comercio: a 10.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 79 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
