Where the market is wrong on Excelsior Virton v KRC Genk II
Excelsior Virton meet KRC Genk II in the Challenger Pro League regular season - 5 at Stade Yvan Georges, Virton.
The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 68%. Attacking output favors KRC Genk II on expected goals, 2.6 to 1.5 per match.
Excelsior Virton arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Francs Borains, W 1-0 @ RSC Anderlecht II, W 3-0 v K. Lierse S.K., D 1-1 v Strasbourg II.
KRC Genk II are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 17 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Sporting Hasselt, W 4-2 @ Lokeren-Temse, W 6-0 v MVV, L 2-3 v Liège.
Excelsior Virton hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2023: Excelsior Virton 3-1 KRC Genk II.
The market prices EXC at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on KRC Genk II: a 9.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 77 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
