Puszcza Niepołomice v Polonia Warszawa: the model read
Puszcza Niepołomice meet Polonia Warszawa in the I Liga regular season - 1. The model makes Puszcza Niepołomice the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 38% PUS, 30% draw, 32% POL.
The baseline ratings are close, 1553 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Puszcza Niepołomice, 55% against 43%. Attacking output favors Polonia Warszawa on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 59%. Draw no bet leans Puszcza Niepołomice at 55%; double chance reads Puszcza Niepołomice or draw 68%, Polonia Warszawa or draw 62%.
Puszcza Niepołomice arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Jarosław, L 0-2 @ Widzew Łódź, W 4-1 @ Stal Mielec, L 0-3 v Nieciecza.
Polonia Warszawa are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Zawisza Bydgoszcz, L 0-2 v Zlin, L 1-2 @ Motor Lublin, W 1-0 @ Pelikan Łowicz.
Puszcza Niepołomice hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1 Polonia Warszawa.
The market prices PUS at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on Puszcza Niepołomice: a 1.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
