Polonia Bytom v Warta Poznań

Polonia Bytom meet Warta Poznań in the I Liga regular season - 1 at Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka, undefined. The model makes Polonia Bytom the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% POL, 28% draw, 36% WAR.

The baseline ratings are close, 1487 to 1504, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 47% against 53%. Attacking output favors Polonia Bytom on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 74%, over 2.5 goals around 75%. Draw no bet leans Polonia Bytom at 50%; double chance reads Polonia Bytom or draw 64%, Warta Poznań or draw 64%.

Polonia Bytom arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v KSZO 1929, L 2-3 @ Opava, W 3-1 v Rekord Bielsko-Biała, W 1-0 @ Gryf Wejherowo.

Warta Poznań are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 8 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 3-4 v Górnik Polkowice, L 1-2 v Lechia Zielona Góra, L 1-3 @ Chrobry Głogów, L 1-4 @ Motor Lublin.

Polonia Bytom hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Warta Poznań 0-1 Polonia Bytom.

The market prices POL at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on Warta Poznań: a 10.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.