Lechia Gdansk v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Lechia Gdansk meet Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki in the I Liga regular season - 1 at Polsat Plus Arena, Gdansk. The model makes Lechia Gdansk the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% LEC, 29% draw, 31% POG.

The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 38% against 33%. Attacking output favors Lechia Gdansk on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 60%. Draw no bet leans Lechia Gdansk at 55%; double chance reads Lechia Gdansk or draw 69%, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw 61%.

Lechia Gdansk arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 6 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Randers FC, L 1-3 v Olimpia Grudziądz, L 0-5 v Petrolul Ploiesti, L 2-3 @ Nieciecza.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Legia Warszawa, L 0-2 v Wigry Suwałki, D 2-2 v Pogoń Siedlce, D 1-1 v AS Trencin.

Lechia Gdansk hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0-1 Lechia Gdansk.

The market prices LEC at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on Lechia Gdansk: a 4.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 63 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.