Where the market is wrong on Annan Athletic v Dumbarton
Annan Athletic meet Dumbarton in the League Two regular season - 5 at Galabank, Annan.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 33% against 28%. Attacking output favors Annan Athletic on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Annan Athletic arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Dumbarton, D 2-2 v Berwick Rangers, L 0-1 @ Edinburgh City, L 1-2 v Clyde.
Dumbarton are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 4 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Annan Athletic, D 2-2 v Celtic II, L 1-3 @ Kelty Hearts, L 0-3 v Edinburgh City.
Dumbarton hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Annan Athletic 2-0 Dumbarton.
The market prices ANN at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Dumbarton: a 4.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
