Where the market is wrong on Everton v Chelsea
Everton meet Chelsea in the Premier League regular season - 7 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 53%. Attacking output favors Chelsea on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.5 per match.
Everton arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Ipswich, W 1-0 v Wolves, D 0-0 @ Tottenham, D 2-2 v Manchester United.
Chelsea are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 13 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Brentford, D 2-2 v Hull City, W 6-3 v Leeds, L 1-2 @ Arsenal.
Chelsea hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Everton 3-0 Chelsea.
The market prices EVE at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on Everton: a 7.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 70 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
