Where the market is wrong on Motherwell v Dundee Utd
Motherwell meet Dundee Utd in the Premiership regular season - 5 at Fir Park, Motherwell.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 45%. Attacking output favors Dundee Utd on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.
Motherwell arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 @ ST Mirren, L 1-4 @ SC Freiburg, L 1-3 v SC Freiburg, L 0-1 @ Stenhousemuir.
Dundee Utd are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 @ Kilmarnock, L 0-2 v Dundee, L 0-4 v Celtic, L 0-4 @ Heart Of Midlothian.
Motherwell hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Motherwell 2-0 Dundee Utd.
The market prices MOT at 47% implied. Our number sits apart on Dundee Utd: a 10.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 77 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
