Where the market is wrong on Vojvodina v Macva
Vojvodina meet Macva in the Super Liga regular season - 3. The model makes Vojvodina the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% VOJ, 31% draw, 30% MAC.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 50%. Attacking output favors Vojvodina on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Vojvodina at 56%; double chance reads Vojvodina or draw 70%, Macva or draw 61%.
Vojvodina arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ FK Crvena Zvezda, L 1-4 v Ajax, W 4-0 v OFK Beograd, L 0-3 @ Ferencvarosi TC.
Macva are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 3 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v FK Partizan, L 0-5 @ FK Crvena Zvezda, L 1-2 v Naftagas, L 1-2 v Naftagas.
The market prices VOJ at 91% implied. Our number sits apart on Macva: a 28.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
