IMT Novi Beograd began the new Super Liga season with a narrow 1-0 victory away at Cukaricki, a result that the data suggests was decided by superior conversion of chances rather than overall dominance. The visitors scored the only goal just before half-time and defended their lead with discipline, while the hosts controlled possession but could not find the net. The Lemeister model had IMT Novi Beograd as the slight favourite at 36% probability, with the draw at 35% and a Cukaricki win at 28%. It projected a 1-0 away win, which proved accurate.
The decisive moment arrived in the 42nd minute when S. Sapic scored for IMT Novi Beograd, with V. Novicic providing the assist. It was a normal goal that gave the visitors the lead heading into the interval. Cukaricki dominated possession with 57% and completed 291 accurate passes from a total of 371, compared to IMT's 205 from 283. Despite this territorial control, the hosts could not translate it into goals. They registered 14 total shots but managed only four on target, with an expected goals figure of 1.78 that was higher than the visitors' 1.39. This suggests Cukaricki created the better chances on paper but failed to convert them, a trend that became the defining narrative of the match.
The difference was most stark in the effectiveness of the finishing and the goalkeeping performance. IMT Novi Beograd also had 14 total shots but placed eight on goal, double the number of their opponents. Their expected goals of 1.39 from those attempts indicates a reasonable conversion rate was required, and they found it through Sapic's strike. Ognjen Čančarević was pivotal for the visitors, earning a match rating of 8.5 after making seven saves to deny Cukaricki. That was more than double the four saves made by the home goalkeeper, highlighting the disparity in clinical finishing between the two sides. The visitors had 10 shots inside the penalty area compared to Cukaricki's nine, demonstrating a slight edge in dangerous positions that counted when it mattered.
Stefan Šapić also stood out for IMT Novi Beograd, earning a rating of 8.3 after a strong all-round performance. For Cukaricki, Đorđe Nikolić (7.7), Marko Docić (7.2) and Veljko Radosavljević (7.2) were the highest-rated players, with Iván Martos (7.3) also impressing for the visitors. The match was fractious, with 18 fouls committed by each side and a combined eight yellow cards. IMT Novi Beograd picked up five bookings: Vladimir Radočaj in the 8th minute, Dušan Zagar in the 13th, Charly Keita in the 29th, Vasilije Novičić in the 31st, and Oriyomi Lebi in the 95th minute. For Cukaricki, Lazar Stojanović was booked in the 18th minute, Aboubacar Cisse in the 80th, and Uroš Miladinović in the 96th minute. Both teams made five substitutions, though Cukaricki could not alter the scoreline despite their second-half pressure with 57% possession.
This opening day victory gives IMT Novi Beograd an early three points and a strong foundation for the season, with the defence showing resilience under pressure. For Cukaricki, the data points to a performance that merited a positive result, but poor finishing and a strong goalkeeping display from the opposition cost them. They created more expected goals than their opponents but could not find the net, a problem they will need to address in their next fixture. The discipline issues, with five yellow cards conceded by the visitors, may also be a concern moving forward, though it did not ultimately cost them the points on this occasion.
