Where the market is wrong on Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar
Heerenveen meet AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie regular season - 5 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen.
The baseline ratings are close, 1613 to 1637, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 66% against 71%. Attacking output favors AZ Alkmaar on expected goals, 2.4 to 2.2 per match.
Heerenveen arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Willem II, L 0-2 v PEC Zwolle, D 2-2 @ Ajax, W 1-0 v Twente.
AZ Alkmaar are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 17 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 5-2 v GO Ahead Eagles, W 2-0 @ Fortuna Sittard, W 4-1 @ Utrecht, W 2-0 v ADO Den Haag.
AZ Alkmaar hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: AZ Alkmaar 3-0 Heerenveen.
The market prices HEE at 24% implied. Our number sits apart on Heerenveen: a 6.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
