Where the market is wrong on Sparta Rotterdam v PEC Zwolle
Sparta Rotterdam meet PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie regular season - 5 at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Rotterdam.
The baseline ratings are close, 1408 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 38% against 35%. Attacking output favors Sparta Rotterdam on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Sparta Rotterdam arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v PEC Zwolle, L 1-2 @ Excelsior, D 3-3 v Utrecht, W 3-1 @ Telstar.
PEC Zwolle are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Sparta Rotterdam, L 1-3 v NEC Nijmegen, W 2-0 @ Heerenveen, L 1-3 @ Twente.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sparta Rotterdam 2-2 PEC Zwolle.
The market prices SPA at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on PEC Zwolle: a 5.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
