Where the market is wrong on Vardar Skopje v Sileks
Vardar Skopje meet Sileks in the First League regular season - 4 at National Arena Toshe Proeski, Skopje.
The baseline ratings are close, 1627 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 65% against 57%. Attacking output favors Vardar Skopje on expected goals, 2.3 to 1.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 63%. Draw no bet leans Vardar Skopje at 51%; double chance reads Vardar Skopje or draw 66%, Sileks or draw 64%.
Vardar Skopje arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Sileks, L 0-1 @ Struga, L 0-2 v Shkendija, L 2-5 @ Riga.
Sileks are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ Vardar Skopje, W 3-0 v Skopje, D 1-1 @ Shkëndija Haraçinë, W 6-0 v Bashkimi Kumanovo.
Vardar Skopje hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Vardar Skopje 4-1 Sileks.
The market prices VAR at 58% implied. Our number sits apart on Sileks: a 17.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
