CSKA 1948 secured a 2-1 victory over Botev Vratsa in the second round of the First League at the Vasil Levski national stadium in Karlovo, a result that the Lemeister model had rated as a finely balanced contest, giving the hosts a 35 per cent chance of winning, the same as the visitors' 34 per cent chance of an away victory. The narrow scoreline was underpinned by a clear statistical edge for the home side, who controlled the key attacking metrics across the 90 minutes.
The opening goal arrived in the 19th minute. Florian Krebs found the net for CSKA 1948, with Atanas Iliev providing the assist. This early breakthrough gave the home side a platform to build upon, though the remainder of the first half saw Botev Vratsa absorb pressure without conceding further. The hosts' dominance in general play from the first whistle was reflected in the raw numbers, as they recorded a higher share of possession and created more shooting opportunities than their opponents.
Botev Vratsa responded after the interval, levelling the match in the 63rd minute. Martin Petkov scored the equaliser, assisted by Kassim Hadji, restoring parity and injecting renewed purpose into the visitors' performance. This period of the match saw Botev Vratsa enjoy their best spell, pressing higher and forcing the home defence into more hurried clearances. However, the balance of expected goals and shots on target still favoured CSKA 1948, suggesting that their overall control of the contest had not been seriously undermined by the concession.
The decisive moment came in the 78th minute. Atanas Iliev scored what proved to be the winner, with Dragan Grivić supplying the assist. This second goal restored CSKA 1948's lead and allowed them to manage the closing stages with greater assurance. Botev Vratsa were unable to find a second equaliser, though they did force a series of defensive interventions from the home side. The match's sole caution was issued in the 95th minute to Botev Vratsa's Milen Stoev, a late booking that did not alter the outcome.
The statistical story was one of control. CSKA 1948 dominated possession, recorded more total shots and more efforts on target, and generated a higher expected goals figure than their opponents. Their passing accuracy and number of completed passes were superior, allowing them to dictate the tempo and starve Botev Vratsa of sustained spells on the ball. The home side also won more corners, a further indicator of their territorial advantage. Botev Vratsa, by contrast, were forced to rely on transitions and set pieces, a strategy that yielded only the single goal.
Among the nameable performers, Atanas Iliev stood out with a goal and an assist, directly contributing to both of his side's goals. Florian Krebs was the other scorer for CSKA 1948, while Dragan Grivić provided the assist for the winner. For Botev Vratsa, Martin Petkov scored the equaliser and Kassim Hadji set it up, but they were otherwise limited in their influence by the home side's control of the ball.
The result gives CSKA 1948 an early-season boost, moving them onto four points from two matches as they begin to build momentum in the Regular Season. Botev Vratsa, having taken one point from their opening two fixtures, will need to improve their ball retention and final-third efficiency if they are to climb the table. The Lemeister model's pre-match projection of a 1-0 home win proved a close estimate of the final scoreline, even if Botev Vratsa's resistance made the margin narrower than the underlying numbers suggested.
