Where the market is wrong on Toluca v FC Juarez
Toluca meet FC Juarez in the Liga MX apertura - 6 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Toluca, 53% against 37%. Attacking output favors Toluca on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 62%, over 2.5 goals around 77%. Draw no bet leans Toluca at 68%; double chance reads Toluca or draw 76%, FC Juarez or draw 50%.
Toluca arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 11 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v FC Juarez, W 2-0 v Austin, W 2-1 @ Club Queretaro, D 0-0 @ Atlante FC.
FC Juarez are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 5 scored and 16 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 @ Toluca, L 1-2 v Club America, L 1-6 @ Monterrey, L 0-3 @ Real Salt Lake.
Toluca hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Toluca 4-0 FC Juarez.
The market prices TOL at 73% implied. Our number sits apart on FC Juarez: a 13.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
