Karbala won the Iraqi League Final with a single goal scored in the 90th minute by A. Turky, a result the Lemeister model had judged a 31 percent probability before kick-off, compared to Baghdad's 39 percent chance of victory. The model's projection of a narrow Baghdad win, by one goal to nil, was overturned by the late intervention that handed Karbala the championship. Without any statistical data or player ratings included in the match record, this outcome cannot be analysed through the usual lenses of possession, chance creation or individual performance.
The decisive moment arrived with the only goal of the game, scored by A. Turky in the 90th minute from open play, with no assist recorded. It was listed as a normal goal, not a penalty or own goal, and no further details of its creation are available in the data. The timing alone, in the final minute of regular time, suggests a match that had remained goalless for 89 minutes, meaning both defences had been resilient enough to keep clean sheets until the closing stages.
The data records zero substitutions for either side, meaning both Baghdad and Karbala used their entire starting line-ups for the full 90 minutes. This lack of changes points to a tactical trust from both coaching staffs in their chosen elevens. No cards of any colour are listed, which implies a clean and disciplined contest, free from the disruptions of bookings or sendings-off. Such disciplinary records are rare in high-stakes finals and indicate a match played with control, if not with the cutting edge of clear chances.
Without any possession numbers, shot counts, expected goals figures, passing accuracy rates or corner tallies, it is impossible to determine which team dominated the territorial battle or created the superior opportunities. The Lemeister model, based on pre-match data that is not provided here, favoured Baghdad, but the absence of in-game statistics means there is no way to verify whether that advantage materialised on the pitch. The match ratings column is also empty, so no player can be evaluated beyond A. Turky, the scorer, whose contribution was decisive even if its broader context cannot be measured.
The result crowns Karbala as champions of the Iraqi League for this season, while Baghdad, the model's favourite, finish as runners-up. For Karbala, the single goal represents the difference between triumph and defeat in a one-off final, underlining how knockout football can hinge on a solitary, late moment. The clean disciplinary record and unchanged line-ups suggest a settled, disciplined approach from both sides, but the lack of statistical granularity leaves the tactical story incomplete. The Lemeister model's assessment of a 31 percent away win probability was ultimately validated by the result, but the data does not explain how Karbala achieved it beyond the identity of the scorer and the minute of the goal. Baghdad's season ends in disappointment, with their 39 percent pre-match chance and projected one-goal margin failing to materialise in the match itself.
