Where the market is wrong on Sport Huancayo v Atletico Grau
Sport Huancayo meet Atletico Grau in the Primera División clausura - 2 at Estadio Huancayo, Huancayo. The model makes Atletico Grau the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 34% SPO, 31% draw, 35% ATL.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 43%. Attacking output favors Sport Huancayo on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 43%. Draw no bet leans Atletico Grau at 50%; double chance reads Sport Huancayo or draw 65%, Atletico Grau or draw 66%.
Sport Huancayo arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 9 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Atletico Grau, L 1-2 @ Alianza Lima, W 3-1 v Club Deportivo Los Chankas, W 1-0 v ADT.
Atletico Grau are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Sport Huancayo, W 3-1 v UTC Cajamarca, D 1-1 v Carlos A. Mannucci, D 1-1 @ Universitario.
The market prices SPO at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on Atletico Grau: a 16.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 80 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
