UTC Cajamarca v UCV Moquegua

UTC Cajamarca meet UCV Moquegua in the Primera División clausura - 2 at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca. The model makes UCV Moquegua the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 34% UTC, 32% draw, 35% UCV.

The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 48%. Attacking output favors UTC Cajamarca on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.0 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 39%. Draw no bet leans UCV Moquegua at 51%; double chance reads UTC Cajamarca or draw 65%, UCV Moquegua or draw 66%.

UTC Cajamarca arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 10 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v UCV Moquegua, L 1-3 @ Atletico Grau, W 4-1 v Deportiva Agropecuaria, W 3-1 v FC Cajamarca.

UCV Moquegua are steady: 1W-4D-0L from their last five (7/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ UTC Cajamarca, D 2-2 v Comerciantes Unidos, D 0-0 v Deportivo Garcilaso, D 0-0 @ FBC Melgar.

UTC Cajamarca hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: UTC Cajamarca 0-0 UCV Moquegua.

The market prices UTC at 59% implied. Our number sits apart on UCV Moquegua: a 17.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 80 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.