Where the market is wrong on Cienciano v Lanus
Cienciano meet Lanus in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana round of 32 at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 33% CIE, 34% draw, 33% LAN.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 53%. Attacking output favors Cienciano on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 31%, over 2.5 goals around 22%. Draw no bet leans Lanus at 51%; double chance reads Cienciano or draw 67%, Lanus or draw 67%.
Cienciano arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 5 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Juan Pablo II College, L 0-2 @ Lanus, L 1-3 v FBC Melgar, L 2-3 v ADT.
Lanus are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v San Lorenzo, W 2-0 v Cienciano, L 1-2 @ Instituto Cordoba, W 1-0 v Mirassol.
The market prices CIE at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 7.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 68 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
