Leioa edged Derio 1-0 in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 final, a result that defied the pre-match read of the Lemeister model, which had favoured Derio with a 40 per cent win probability and projected a 1-0 away victory. The Lemeister model gave the draw a 30 per cent chance, matching Leioa’s win probability, and anticipated a low-scoring affair. The decisive moment came late, when J. Juste scored for the home side with five minutes of normal time remaining, tilting a contest that the model had assessed as close but ultimately required a single goal to separate the sides.
The goal was scored in the 85th minute, a normal strike by J. Juste that broke the deadlock. There was no assist recorded on the play. It was the only goal of the match, and the only event of note on the scoresheet, with no cards issued and no substitutions made by either side. The match was decided by a solitary moment of execution in the final phase of the game, with Leioa capitalising on what was likely a rare clear opportunity in a contest that the statistical record shows as sparse.
The statistical record is sparse, with no shots, possession, passing, or expected goals data provided. This limits the depth of tactical analysis available, but the absence of cards and the single goal suggest a disciplined and tightly-contested encounter. Neither side forced a yellow or red card, and the lack of substitutions indicates both teams largely stuck with their starting personnel, perhaps trusting in their chosen strategies to hold firm into the closing stages. Without any shots or expected goals figures, it is impossible to assess which side created the better chances or controlled the run of play, but the late winner implies that Leioa may have grown into the match or caught Derio on a rare lapse.
Without a full ratings sheet, the individual contributions beyond the scorer cannot be formally evaluated. J. Juste’s goal was the defining action, the only act of finishing that separated the sides. The rest of the Leioa outfield will have had to defend their clean sheet without formal recognition in the data, while Derio’s defence, despite keeping the match goalless for 85 minutes, could not prevent the decisive strike. The absence of ratings means that standout performers in defensive or midfield roles cannot be identified, but the clean sheet for Leioa suggests collective discipline.
The result gives Leioa the trophy in a competition that went down to a single late goal. For Derio, the defeat will sting given the Lemeister model’s assessment that they were the more likely winner, with a 40 per cent chance against Leioa’s 30. That projection of a 1-0 away win was precisely the scoreline that materialised, but in the opposite direction. The narrow margin, the absence of cards and substitutions, and the model’s balanced probabilities all point to a final that was as tight as the numbers suggested. Leioa, however, found the decisive finish when it mattered most, converting their only recorded scoring moment to secure silverware in a group final that promised little to separate the sides. Derio will rue their inability to convert their status as slight favourites into a result, while Leioa celebrate a triumph built on late precision and defensive solidity.
