Linense v Marília

Linense meet Marília in the Copa Paulista group stage - 2. The model makes Marília the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 24% LIN, 33% draw, 43% MAR.

Marília rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1604 to 1400. Recent form leans Marília, 65% against 35%. Attacking output favors Marília on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 26%, over 2.5 goals around 26%. Draw no bet leans Marília at 64%; double chance reads Linense or draw 57%, Marília or draw 76%.

Linense arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Marília, D 0-0 @ Bandeirante SP, D 1-1 @ Ferroviária, D 1-1 v Santo André.

Marília are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Linense, W 1-0 v Grêmio Prudente, L 0-2 @ Portuguesa Santista, D 2-2 v Portuguesa Santista.

Linense hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Linense 3-1 Marília.

The market prices LIN at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on Marília: a 10.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 79 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.